Is the Glass Half Empty?
September 27, 2007 | Leave a Comment
I have the good fortune, or the misfortune, of having a CNBC business news feed at my desk. So whenever I’m in the office, I can listen to commentary on the markets at most times during the business day. And in the car, XM Satellite Radio also features CNBC on one if its channels. Useful, or obsessive? For me, very useful, especially since housing statistics and news are routinely reported, and commented upon, almost daily on CNBC. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports frequently on existing home sales data; the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) provides data on housing starts and new home sales. Similar reports from the U.S. Commerce Department, the mortgage industry, and timely reports about Federal Reserve Board action all contribute to our ability to mind the pulse of the housing market.
Today’s headlines were bleak:
- KB Home Swings to Third Quarter Loss, Sees Worsening Market in 2008
- New Home Sales Tumble to 7-Year Low
- Foxtons May File for Bankruptcy
“We expect housing industry conditions to continue to worsen through the end of the year and into 2008,” according to Jeffrey Metzger, CEO of KB Home.
Sales of new homes dropped by 8.3 percent in August from July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, driving down sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 795,000 units. That was the lowest level since June 2000.
Foxtons, one of our nation’s large discount real estate brokers, announced that it was “releasing” 350 of its 380 employees, and “may be filing for bankruptcy protection in order to close the business in an orderly fashion.”
(I feel sympathy for the employees, who were salary-based agents in this low-cost model. More so, I’m concerned about the chaos that faces Foxtons’ current customers, reportedly numbering 4400 sellers on the East Coast. The moral of the story: hire an agent that has been around a long time, through good and bad markets. Christe and I have been in business for nearly twenty years, including the down market of the early ’90′s. And we’ll be here for a long time to come!)
On the brighter side: Interest rates continue to fall from their panic peak of August. The LIBOR index, which is the basis of many adjustable mortgage rate mortgages, has dropped to nearly 5.1%, from nearly 6% when the panic hit last month.
National housing trends are not NECESSARILY the same as those in Orange County. Have you heard the expression, “all politics is local”? Well, the same principal applies to real estate. Some regions will fare better than others; in Seattle, for instance, prices have actually been climbing selectively this summer.
Is O.C. immune from a national decline? Of course not. To be sure, the trend is definitely DOWN right now. Inventory in some price ranges, and in some neighborhoods, is high. In others, inventory is lower. So even within a local market such as ours in O.C., there will be gradients of supply and demand across the spectrum of price and location which will ultimately determine sales price.
CovH Update – Sept. ’07
September 24, 2007 | Leave a Comment
Both the East and West Enclaves of the custom estates of Covenant Hills have seen a flurry of activity over the summer months. The bad news really isn’t so bad: construction traffic and parking can be a problem during the typical weekday. But the good news is really good: more beautiful homes are being completed each month as the community fills in and shapes up!
Would you like more data? Our Market Update section presents only a brief snapshot of active listings and this year’s sales, in the production homes, and amongst the custom homes and homesites. Want more? Let us know what you need, and we will happily provide to you additional facts and figures. Market evaluation of your home? Of course. It would be our privilege to do so.
It is our pleasure to feature this month on CovenantHills.info one of the community’s most recently completed estate homes, and one of its finest. The estate at One San Jose Street is a gorgeous Spanish Revival, ready for occupancy, complete with salt-water pool & spa, outdoor cook center, and lush mature landscaping. Walking through the home, I have been charmed by the the elegant appointments and quality materials chosen by the architect and builder. Even outdoors, there is an obvious sense of serenity and refinement, thanks in part to a centralized music system and the privacy afforded to the property by its end of cul-de-sac location and gated motorcourt. It would be our privilege to provide prospective home buyers with a private tour of this fine home. Contact us today »
Welcome to CovenantHills.info!
September 21, 2007 | 1 Comment
As with much of Covenant Hills, this site, too, has been under construction! And also like Covenant Hills, it is, and will continue to be, a work in progress and continually improving! That is one advantage of our unique weblog-based CovenantHills.info website – ever changing, and steadily growing, just like the neighborhood!
We welcome your help! If you have information or perspective to contribute, please do! Contact us with your suggestions, or corrections, and as is typical with weblogs, posts and articles are open for comments. And if you, or a family member, friend, co-worker, or neighbor, is interested in selling a home, in Covenant Hills, or elsewhere, give us a call at (949) 240-5892.
Coming soon to CovenantHills.info: more in-depth “info” about your Realtors, and more detailed “info” about the homes of Covenant Hills.
At your service,
Mark & Christe Roknich